← Çekoslovakya'nın Sovyet Öncülüğündeki İşgali, 1968

Batı analizi, Moskova'nın işgalin siyasi bedeli tarafından caydırılacağını varsaydı.

corroboratedconfidence: high

Named by the Secretary of State himself two days after the invasion, and consistent with the April reasoning from the Romanian precedent.

Destekleyen ve teyit eden deliller

Ambassador Bohlen said that the Soviets would be reluctant to resort to direct military intervention on the Hungarian pattern, and had, in fact, refrained from doing so against Romania.

Charles Bohlen — FRUS 1964-68 v17 D20, NSC, 1968-04-24 · source ↗

The political costs the Soviets would have to pay was one reason we thought they would not move.

Dean Rusk — FRUS 1964-68 v17 D84, White House, 1968-08-22 · source ↗

Bağlam

We believe anything that has appearance of unusual concern, for example, special NAC session should be avoided due to visibility.

FRUS 1964-68 v17 D62, Department of State, 1968-05-11 · source ↗