← The Soviet-Led Invasion of Czechoslovakia, 1968

Western analysis assumed Moscow would be deterred by the political costs of invading.

corroboratedconfidence: high

Named by the Secretary of State himself two days after the invasion, and consistent with the April reasoning from the Romanian precedent.

Supporting and corroborating evidence

Ambassador Bohlen said that the Soviets would be reluctant to resort to direct military intervention on the Hungarian pattern, and had, in fact, refrained from doing so against Romania.

Charles Bohlen — FRUS 1964-68 v17 D20, NSC, 1968-04-24 · source ↗

The political costs the Soviets would have to pay was one reason we thought they would not move.

Dean Rusk — FRUS 1964-68 v17 D84, White House, 1968-08-22 · source ↗

Context

We believe anything that has appearance of unusual concern, for example, special NAC session should be avoided due to visibility.

FRUS 1964-68 v17 D62, Department of State, 1968-05-11 · source ↗