OPENINTEL.archive Arşivler arası delil istihbaratı — birincil kaynak, gizliliği kaldırılmış belgeler. English

← Kıbrıs Krizi, 1974

Yunanistan Kıbrıs için Türkiye ile savaşa girmeyecekti.

corroboratedconfidence: moderate

Held before the crisis and after it; the intervening State contingency papers judged a Greek attack across the Evros probable.

Destekleyen ve teyit eden deliller

While deliberately initiated war thus seems unlikely in the near future, some sort of armed clash or incident remains possible.

FRUS 1969-76 v30 D15, CIA / DIA / INR (Interagency), 1974-06-21 · source ↗

The Greeks are angry at the US because the alternatives are either very frustrating or very unpalatable. They should be angry at the Turks, and they are, but they cannot affort to respond militarily to the Turks because they know they probably could not win.

FRUS 1969-76 v30 D22, CIA, 1974-08-29 · source ↗

Çelişen deliller

If the Turks insist on continuing the fighting to consolidate their position, the Greeks will probably attack Turkey across the Evros River in Thrace. In that case the Turks would probably respond with action against Greek Aegean islands.

FRUS 1969-76 v30 D112, Department of State / INR, 1974-07-22 · source ↗

If the Turks break out and do not halt soon, at some point the Greek Government is liable to attack Turkish forces. Turkey enjoys military preponderance everywhere, but frustration will force the Greeks to attack anyway, even with foreknowledge that they will lose.

FRUS 1969-76 v30 D130, Department of State / INR, 1974-08-13 · source ↗