Interagency Intelligence Memorandum: The Likelihood of Conflict Between Greece and Turkey
CIA / DIA / INR (Interagency) FRUS intelligence_memo Secret
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Verbatim passages
It is within Turkey's capabilities to cut off Cyprus from any Greek access, and to launch a successful landing on the island, if it chooses. Ankara would take such action only in the unlikely event of a Greek attempt to take over the island or in order to protect a threatened Turkish minority on the island.
FRUS 1969-76 v30 D15, CIA / DIA / INR (Interagency), 1974-06-21 · Paragraph 43. The key pre-coup judgement — and the central misjudgement of the crisis
While deliberately initiated war thus seems unlikely in the near future, some sort of armed clash or incident remains possible.
FRUS 1969-76 v30 D15, CIA / DIA / INR (Interagency), 1974-06-21 · Principal Judgments
Document metadata
| Reference | FRUS 1969-76 v30 D15 |
|---|---|
| Originating body | CIA / DIA / INR (Interagency) — NIOs for Western Europe and Conventional Forces |
| Date | 1974-06-21 |
| Document type | intelligence_memo |
| Classification | Secret |
| Archive | Foreign Relations of the United States — Office of the Historian (US) |
| Provenance | Filed at CIA, NIC Files Job 79-R01012A. The closest thing to an NIE on this question in the window |
Claims this document bears on
Turkey was increasingly likely to intervene militarily in Cyprus.
The community's own pre-coup judgement puts intervention in the "unlikely" bucket.
Assessments recorded from this document
- CIA / DIA / INR (Interagency) — unlikely (1974-06-21) · "only in the unlikely event"
Entities
Central Intelligence AgencyBureau of Intelligence and Research (INR)Defense Intelligence AgencyTurkeyGreeceCyprus